讲座题目：Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from China

主讲人：李宏毅

讲座时间：12月11日下午（周二）15:00-17:30

讲座地点：999策略白菜手机论坛A208

主办单位：999策略白菜手机论坛经济系

讲座摘要：This paper empirically investigates the interactions between exchange rate and several major economic variables, including industrial output, unemployment rate, interest rate differential, and crude oil import price, in the case of China. We test whether the exchange rate is a source of economic fluctuations or a shock absorber with the assistance of a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model identified by a mixture of short-run and long-run zero restrictions. We apply the SVAR model to China's economic time series in the last decade based on a just-identified SVAR model. With innovation accounting results, we find supportive evidence that exchange rate movements are acting more like an absorber to other economic innovations, rather than a source of shock in a large but less open economy like China

主讲人简介：李宏毅，博士，香港中文大学教授、博士生导师。李宏毅博士于1986年获得清华大学工学学士学位；1989年获得中国人民大学经济学硕士学位。随后在美国俄亥俄州立大学学习，于1995年获经济学博士学位。毕业后曾在世界银行工作，从事经济增长与收入分配方面的研究。1996年至今在香港中文大学商学院决策科学与企业经济系任教，讲授经济学方面的本科，研究生，MBA以及EMBA课程。研究兴趣为经济与金融时间序列计量分析，宏观经济增长和收入分配理论，以及中国经济等诸多方面。研究成果发表于Journal of Econometrics, Economic Journal, China Economic Review等国际学术期刊，至今共发表论文六十余篇。