Jingling Luojia Finance Seminar: Winter Macro Workshop, 2019

999策略白菜手机论坛经管学院金融系

Finance Department, Economics and Management School, Wuhan University

一、议程 (Schedule)

时间 (Time)：2019/12/7

场地 (Venue)：理学楼208

二、报告人及文章摘要

1. 王胜 (Prof. Sheng Wang)

个人简介 (Bio)：1977年生，2005年获999策略白菜手机论坛经济学博士，现为999策略白菜手机论坛金融系教授、博士生导师，曾赴美国Brandeis大学做访问学者。研究方向为国际宏观经济学，主要侧重于货币理论、货币政策等国际金融问题的研究，现任《经济研究》、《世界经济》、《金融研究》等多种期刊杂志的匿名审稿专家。至今已经在《Annals of Economics and Finance》、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《金融研究》等国内外权威核心期刊上发表论文40多篇。主持国家自然科学基金项目、教育部规划基金项目共4项，参加国家级课题多项。出版专著2部，参编教材3部。

文章题目 (Title)：货币国际化、汇率制度与外汇干预

文章摘要 (Abstract)：本文通过构建一个包含不完全汇率传递的小国开放经济DSGE模型，深入探讨了货币国际化进程中外汇干预政策的传导机制和宏观影响。通过融入货币国际化、管理浮动汇率制、资本管制等中国经济的典型特点，我们研究发现：人民币国际化程度不高是现阶段中国经济的重要特征，人民币国际化进程和资本账户开放都将强化外生冲击影响中国宏观经济的国际溢出效应；外汇干预政策和管理浮动的利率政策都能够有效减缓汇率和产出的波动幅度，但是在兼顾金融稳定的情况下，外汇干预政策比管理浮动利率政策更加有效；深化管理浮动汇率制度改革，可以有效地降低外汇干预的必要性。根据研究结论，本文认为中国货币当局应优先加快人民币汇率制度的改革，谨慎实施资本开放的政策，逐步减少和降低外汇干预政策频率和力度，加快汇率市场化的步伐。

2. 聂光宇 (Prof. Guangyu Nie)

个人简介 (Bio)：上海财经大学副教授，Georgetown University经济学博士，研究方向为宏观经济学与国际金融。论文发表于American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics等期刊。

文章题目 (Title)：Fisherian Debt-Deflation Zero Lower Bound

文章摘要 (Abstract)：How important is the effect of the interest rate Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on the severity of the Great Recession in the U.S.? We tackle this question using an incomplete market, two-agent New Keynesian model, with an occasionally binding ZLB and a borrowing constraint. We show that the interaction between binding ZLB and the deleveraging cycle triggered by binding borrowing constraint can be a powerful mechanism to exacerbate the impact of financial crises. The ZLB tends to bind when capital is abundant and the borrowing constraint binds. At the ZLB, output can be decreasing in capital stock because of insufficient aggregate demand. Consequently, when capital stock is high enough relative to productivity, output drops all the way to zero and equilibrium ceases to exist. Equilibrium existence can be restored by adding capital adjustment cost and endogenous capital price to the model. In the quantitative version of the model, solved numerically using a global nonlinear method, we find that the amplification effects of deleveraging shocks on output, investment, asset prices, and risk premium are significantly larger in the presence of the ZLB.

3. 沈吉 (Prof. Ji Shen)

个人简介 (Bio)：沈吉，目前任教于北京大学光华管理学院金融学系。他在复旦大学物理学系获得理学学士，在北京大学获得经济学硕士，在伦敦政治经济学院获得金融学博士学位。目前主要的研究兴趣在有摩擦的金融市场资产定价理论，宏观理论和货币政策等。研究成果发表于Review of Financial Studies，经济研究等国内外顶尖期刊。

文章题目 (Title)：过桥贷款、金融风险与资源配置效率

文章摘要 (Abstract)：

4. 刘定 (Prof. Ding Liu)

个人简介 (Bio)：刘定，英国格拉斯哥大学经济学博士，现任西南财经大学经济学院副教授、博士生导师，研究领域为宏观经济学和货币经济学，成果（或即将）发表于Journal of Monetary Economics、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control和Economic Modelling等刊物，主持国家自然科学基金项目1项

文章题目 (Title)：Monetary-fiscal Policy Switching and Inflation Dynamics in China：An MS-DSGE Perspective

文章摘要 (Abstract)：

5. 姜明明 (Prof. Mingming Jiang)

个人简介 (Bio)：姜明明，山东大学经济学院副教授，毕业于加州大学河滨分校，研究方向为宏观经济学、应用计量经济学、中国经济等。研究论文发表于Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、Macroeconomic Dynamics等。

文章题目 (Title)：Financial Depth, Income Distribution, and Economic Transition

文章摘要 (Abstract)：General equilibrium theories suggest that economic development has a close relationship with both finance and income distribution. Prior empirical studies on the important finance-inequality nexus did not properly incorporate the influence of economic transition and obtained biased estimates of the role of financial depth. We employ a nonparametric function of finance to flexibly characterize its varying effects during economic transition and explore the non-linear channels through which finance operates on income distribution. Using the Chinese economy as an example, we establish the causal effects of finance on income inequality using the entry behavior of modern foreign banks in each province during 1845-1949 as an instrumental variable for financial depth. Our estimations suggest a robustly asymmetric and roughly inverted-L shaped relationship of finance and inequality during the transition of the Chinese economy. The marginal impacts of financial depth are affected by the degree of credit constraint, the fraction of state ownership, and the level of economic development along the transition process.

6. 李博 (Prof. Bo Li)

个人简介 (Bio)：李博，北京大学经济学院助理教授、研究员，毕业于纽约州立大学石溪分校，研究方向为宏观经济学，房地产经济学，公共财政和计算经济学。李博本科毕业于北京大学数学科学学院，硕士毕业于北京大学经济学院。目前的研究主要包括全民基本收入计划（UBI），所得税改消费税的福利分析，劳动力空间分布和房地产市场的宏观影响等。

文章题目 (Title)：Changes in housing markets and spatial sorting in the United States

文章摘要 (Abstract)：The spatial sorting and housing markets in the United States have experienced two significant changes from 1981 to 2000: the increased concentration of population in metropolitan areas, and the widening of housing price differences. These changes happened in parallel with the widening of the metropolitan wage premium and the college premium. In order to quantify their impact on spatial sorting and housing prices, I develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, endogenous housing prices, and incomplete markets. This model captures well the changes in spatial sorting and house price that has been observed between 1981 and 2000. Through a decomposition exercise, I found that the primary force driving population and price changes is the metropolitan wage premium, which accounts for around 90% of the observed changes. In addition, spatial sorting plays a critical role in determining housing price variations and has exacerbated wealth inequality.