景林珞珈金融论坛第176-181期

Jingling Luojia Finance Seminar: Winter Macro Workshop, 2020

999策略白菜手机论坛经管学院金融系

Finance Department, Economics and Management School, Wuhan University

一、议程 (Schedule)

时间 (Time)：2020/12/12

场地 (Venue)：经管院A321

二、报告人及文章摘要

1. 张敏 (Prof. Min Zhang)

个人简介 (Bio)：华东师范大学经管学部研究员，博导，加拿大多伦多大学经济学博士，主要研究领域为宏观经济，中国经济，劳动经济。其主要研究成果发表在Review of Economic Dynamics、Journal of Population Economics和Macroeconomic Dynamics等多个国际权威经济学杂志上，主持多项国家自科科学基金课题。

文章题目 (Title)：疫情冲击下的劳动力二元市场反应与政策评估——劳动搜寻匹配模型视角

文章摘要 (Abstract)：内容摘要：在后疫情时代，政府积极运用财政政策努力落实“稳就业、保民生”。全面、科学地评估政策效果对于稳步推进“六稳”“六保”工作具有重要的现实意义。本研究运用劳动搜寻匹配模型，深入刻画中国劳动力市场近二十年来的核心特征，通过模型校准模拟定量分析疫情对劳动力市场供求关系的影响，科学评估不同财政救助政策的宏观效果。本研究发现，当人均劳动生产率下降5%时，在工资刚性的约束下，失业率上升2.27个百分点，社会福利下降5.48个百分点；疫情对失业的负向影响随着工资刚性的减弱而下降，但消费或社会福利损失随着工资刚性的减弱而加强。同时，不同救助政策的比较研究表明，对失业劳动者提供失业补助显著提高失业；相对于对企业提供工资补贴而言，补贴企业岗位创建对于降低失业，提升消费有着显著的积极影响。

2. 孙荣荣 (Prof. Rongrong Sun)

个人简介 (Bio)：Professor in the School of Economics at Henan University. Before joining Henan University, she worked as Assistant Professor at University of Nottingham Ningbo China. She obtained her Doctor degree in Economics from the University of Wuppertal (Germany) in 2013. Her research interests include Monetary Economics, Macroeconomics and Chinese Economic Studies, with papers published in Journal of Banking & Finance, Journal of International Money and Finance, International Journal of Central Banking, Oxford Review of Economic Policy and China Economic Review, etc.

文章题目 (Title)：Household Debt, Credit Constraints and Discrimination in China

文章摘要 (Abstract)：Who drives high demand for credit? Whom do banks ration loans to? This paper studies credit demand and credit constraints in China, using four rounds of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017). We trace the demand and supply sides of the loan market and estimate them separately. It turns out that the observed low borrowing in the retired households arises from low demand, rather than from denial of credit. Results show that around 14% of households are constrained in 2012, with old less-educated male unemployed households being the most constrained, while high income, high wealth and more education lower credit constraints. There is no evidence suggesting ethnic or rural discrimination in credit rationing. We find a happy match: A young household is most likely to demand consumer loans, while it is also preferred by banks in granting loans. Moreover, there is positive discrimination in favor of the female when banks grant loans. A counterfactual exercise shows that if borrowing constraints were relaxed for credit-constrained households, these families would hold at least an average of 162,0000 yuan (2012 RBM) more debt.

3. 金昊 (Prof. Hao Jin)

个人简介 (Bio)：金昊，经济学博士，现任厦门大学王亚南经济研究院与经济学院助理教授，研究领域为宏观经济学、货币与财政政策、开放宏观经济学。论文发表于Review of Economic Dynamics、Journal of International Money and Finance、经济学（季刊）、中国工业经济等国内外经济学权威期刊。主持国家自科基金和教育部人文社科基金青年项目，参与多个国家社科重大和自科面上项目。担任Review of Economic Dynamics、Journal of International Money and Finance、Economic Modelling、经济学（季刊）、中国工业经济、系统工程理论与实践等期刊的审稿人。研究成果曾获福建省社会科学优秀成果奖三等奖。

文章题目 (Title)：Global Saving Glut and Sector Dynamics in the United States

文章摘要 (Abstract)：We document that the sharp rise of current account deficit in the U.S. between 1997 to 2007 is associated with a decline of tradable sector share in output, employment, credit, operating surplus and firm number. We develop a two-counrty, two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to assess to what extent the global saving glut can account for the simultaneous changes in the U.S. current account and the sector composition. We find that foreign saving desire explains a significant portion of the dynamics of sector shares. Our results also imply frictional credit market and endogenous firm entry are important to produce the observed asymmetric resource allocation and amplify the impact of global saving glut on the U.S. business cycles.

4. 杨柳 (Prof. Liu Yang)

个人简介 (Bio)：杨柳，女，华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授，博士生导师，金融工程系主任，金融工程研究中心副主任、金融硕士专业学位学科负责人；中国人民银行武汉分行研究顾问，湖北省金融统计学会理事，研究领域为货币金融学，金融稳定和银行风险管理。

文章题目 (Title)：银行部门期限错配与货币政策传导效果

文章摘要 (Abstract)：针对新常态下货币政策调控效果弱化的经验事实，本文将具备期限错配特征的银行部门引入DSGE模型，对“宽货币”难以向“宽信用”转化的银行传导渠道阻滞机理进行了分析。研究显示：（1）银行深度期限错配使政策利率呈现不完全传递，银行倾向于利用宽货币下负债成本削减效应积累资本，信贷扩张弱化。（2）期限错配加剧了货币政策对金融稳定的溢出，银行净值在货币冲击下呈现高波动性，抑制了银行资本渠道的有效性。考虑期限错配的“双支柱”政策实验显示，盯住信贷总量的差别准备金动态调整能促进货币政策传导，通过稳定金融部门提高货币政策调控效力。

5. 李倩 (Prof. Qian Li)

个人简介 (Bio)：上海财经大学高等研究院助教授。长期从事公共金融、财政学和计算经济学研究。多项研究发表于国际期刊，如Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economic Letters 和 The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics。

文章题目 (Title)：The Welfare Analysis of the Itemized Deduction of Medical Expen-ditures

文章摘要 (Abstract)：This paper quantifies the welfare consequences of China's 2019 individual income tax reform: itemized deduction for medical expenditures. We establish a general equilibrium overlapping generation model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous households that contain both males and females. We find that the reform will bring an average welfare gain of 0.39% in the long run and 0.24% in the short run. However, this reform is regressive because it grants high income households with more generous tax deductions and cannot provide enough support to the neediest families whose both spouses are hit by the worst health shock. We find that a complete medical expense deduction from taxable income can generate a maximum welfare gain of 1.2% at steady state, and an income-dependent deduction threshold can attenuate the negative redistribution.

6. 熊琛 (Prof. Chen Xiong)

个人简介 (Bio)：999策略白菜手机论坛聘期制讲师。2020年毕业于厦门大学王亚南经济研究院。论文发表于（含待刊）《经济学（季刊）》、《中国工业经济》、Journal of International Money and Finance等国内外学术期刊。曾获第五届全国金融学博士生论坛一等奖。

文章题目 (Title)：银行间市场与地方政府债务风险的区域间外溢

文章摘要 (Abstract)：本文从实证和理论两方面分析了地方政府债务风险的外溢效应和渠道。我们首先使用网络分析方法和VAR模型实证发现区域地方政府债务风险存在外溢效应，且银行间市场是风险传导的重要渠道。接着我们构建了一个包含中央和地方政府以及银行间市场的两区域动态随机一般均衡模型来量化分析地方政府债务风险的外溢程度和风险防范政策的效果。模型的数值模拟显示一个区域的地方政府债务风险会影响当地的地方银行资产负债表状况，并通过银行间市场中的资金拆借形成风险扩散，造成其他区域的地方银行融资条件恶化，最终导致其他区域政府债券的溢价上升。反事实政策模拟发现对银行间市场的干预以及对地方银行的救助均有助于缓解区域债务风险的外溢，降低系统性风险和对实体经济的负面影响。因此，我们建议在防范地方政府债务风险时需要考虑到风险的地区差异，划分出不同区域的风险等级，对不同风险等级的区域采取差异性的风险防控，必要时采用银行间市场干预政策以及地方性银行救助等应对措施以防止区域风险的传导与扩散。